February 4th has been circled on calendars throughout Columbus and Madison for a while now. The resumption of perhaps the Big Ten's best basketball rivalry is now upon us and while Wisconsin's 1-3 start had many thinking of selling their tickets, somehow this game is for 1st place in the Big Ten after the Badgers (18-5, 7-3) rattled off six straight since their last loss back on January 8th in Ann Arbor. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, have also recovered after an uncharacteristically rocky start to conference play. Road losses to Indiana and Illinois had Ohio State (19-3, 7-2) sitting at just 3-2 in conference. Expected to run away with the conference title, Ohio State has not been the invincible team that the so-called experts pegged them to be during the preseason.
Still, OSU is arguably the best team in the country. After dealing with back issues throughout much of the non-conference season and early on in Big Ten play, sophomore forward Jared Sullinger is once again healthy and playing like the All-American he is destined to be. The Columbus native is averaging over 15 points per game during the Buckeyes' four-game winning streak, tearing apart opposing defenses on the interior and opening things up for the OSU guard corps on the perimeter. One of those guards benefitting from Sullinger's resurgence is sophomore Lenzelle Smith Jr. The Zion, Ill native did not play much in his freshman year but has exploded onto the scene in Big Ten play. Despite being held to just two points combined in OSU wins over bottom dwellers Penn State and Nebraska, Smith has been a go-to guy in the Buckeyes' bigger wins, putting up a career-high 28 points against Indiana and following that performance up with a 17 point effort against rival Michigan last Sunday.
While all five Buckeye starters are capable of burning opposing defenses, OSU is not deep by any means. No bench player for Ohio State is averaging over five points per game and the starting five combine to produce a full 79% of the Buckeyes' scoring this season. For comparison, the relatively thin Badger bench has contributed 25% of the UW scoring output. With that in mind, one of the keys to Saturday for UW will be the interior attack, trying to find a way to get OSU starters in foul trouble and off their game. Just as they did with Indiana forward Cody Zeller, the Badgers will certainly make a concerted effort to attack Sullinger on the defensive end. Without Sullinger, Ohio State is very vulnerable, evidenced by their collapse in the first half at Indiana following the big man's 2nd foul.
Regardless of what they are able to do on the defensive end, the Badgers have to hit shots on Saturday to pull off the (minor) upset. With UW and OSU ranking #1 and #2 nationally on the defensive end, it seems that whichever team is able to knock down shots is going to have the upper hand. Wisconsin knows the importance of shooting the ball all too well. Despite surviving a tough day against Nebraska back on January 15th, the Badgers have struggled this year when failing to reach the 40% mark from the field. In fact, when UW shoots 40% or better from the field this season, they are 14-0. When they shoot a better percentage than their opponent, they are also 14-0. Under 40% or worse than the opposition and the Badgers are just 4-5. On the same token, OSU is 18-2 when shooting better than 40% and 19-1 when outshooting that same opponent.
Historically, Wisconsin has shot lights out at the Kohl Center and dominated on their home turf as a result. But this season the vaunted Kohl Center hasnt been such a house of horrors for visiting squads. Marquette snapped the Badgers' 23-game home win streak back on December 3rd, but the biggest chink in the armor came on December 31st when unranked and unheralded Iowa came in and shocked the Badgers in Madison. Michigan State followed that defeat up by handing Bucky a 2nd straight home loss with a 63-60 overtime decision on January 3rd. The three home losses had already tied a single-season high for the Bo Ryan era and Wisconsin had a full seven games remaining.
Never has a Wisconsin team lost four games in one season at the Kohl Center and this year's team does not want to become the first. But to continue being considered among the best in the Big Ten they will have to beat the best Saturday. Ohio State is in town and Madison is ready to roll. Tip off is just a few hours away.
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