As great as the NCAA Tournament is, March Madness comes
packed with a brutal reality: one misstep and its all over. With one more half
of poor shooting, Wisconsin found that our the hard way, falling to 12th-seeded
Ole Miss to bring a quick end to a postseason run many thought had a chance to
go the distance.
I remember back in 2012 in the wake of a Hail Mary loss to
Michigan State that there was a feeling of shock in the locker room at what had
been lost in the game’s final seconds. But while many in that locker room,
players and media alike, had a sort of “this season is over” reaction to that
heartbreaking loss, there were still several games to play and ultimately a Big
Ten title to be won.
For UW basketball, there is no such opportunity for
redemption. There is no best-of-three series or NIT opportunity. The season is
over, done, a thing of the past.
But while the high expectations of this Wisconsin team are a
major contributor to the feelings of disappointment, especially in light of the
way the West region has played out in the days since Friday’s loss, those
expectations were unrealistic. Wisconsin was not a Final Four team, at least
not this year.
When junior guard Josh Gasser, projected to start at the
point guard position, went down just weeks before the first game with a
season-ending knee injury, many both in Madison and elsewhere wondered if the
2012-2013 season would mark the end of UW head coach Bo Ryan’s reign of
consistency. Ryan had never finished outside the top 4 in the Big Ten and had
never missed an NCAA Tournament in 11 years as Wisconsin’s head coach.
Having already lost Jordan Taylor, one of the most prolific
guards in school history, the loss of Gasser in October seemed to be the break
that would bring the Badgers’ competitive run to a temporary end.
Even before Gasser went down, many predictions had Wisconsin
finishing between fifth and seventh in the loaded Big Ten standings. With
Gasser out and sophomore Traevon Jackson forced into action, the Badgers were
all but left for dead by those in the know.
Going 9-4 in non-conference play certainly didn’t help to
alleviate the concerns among the Wisconsin faithful that this would be the year
they would finally see NIT games played at the Kohl Center. The Badgers lost
every major test they had in November and December, being blown out by the
likes of Florida, Creighton, and Marquette while losing at home to Virginia in
the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
Somehow the Badgers survived another string of mediocre
efforts to start Big Ten play, winning closely contested games at home against
Penn State and on the road at Nebraska. Despite the 2-0 start, nothing on the
court indicated that this UW team would be able to compete with the upper
echelon teams in the conference.
Then Illinois came calling. Having been fortunate enough to
spend a week in preparation, UW came out as a different team on that January
Saturday, blitzing a shocked Illini team out of the blocks and building a
20-point lead before Brandon Paul and company could even catch their collective
breath.
Still, that was at the Kohl Center and even a 3-0 start left
open the possibility of collapse, a possibility made very real with Wisconsin
in the midst of 11 straight games against ranked opponents.
Then just three days after beating Illinois the Badgers took
down Indiana in Bloomington. This wasn’t the hot-and-cold Illini or even the
one-dimensional Cal Bears. This was Indiana, at Assembly Hall.
Suddenly, though still unranked, Wisconsin had gone from
bubble hopeful to conference title contender in the most hotly contested race
in college basketball. The Badgers were now 4-0 and the last remaining unbeaten
in Big Ten play, trailed in the conference standings by five teams that had
been ranked in the top 10 in the country at one point.
Predictably, UW came down to earth in Iowa City. The Badgers
were overwhelmed by an emotional crowd at Carver-Hawkeye and dug themselves a
30-10 hole that even 20 points from freshman George Marshall couldn’t erase. A
home loss three days later to Michigan State took Wisconsin back to square one.
From there, it was a roller-coaster ride the rest of the
season. Every time the Badgers pulled off an “upset” win or got on a string of
quality performances, they immediately threw up a dismal effort and came
crashing back to earth. After that quick 4-0 start, Wisconsin would never again
win more than three straight games. Every big high was almost immediately
countered by an equally deep low.
The NCAA Tournament requires a six-game winning streak.
Wisconsin had just one of those the entire year. So to expect UW to make a
sustained run in NCAA Tournament play was simply unrealistic. While the Badgers
had proven themselves capable of beating anyone in the nation (though the
favorable matchups with Indiana and Michigan certainly aided in the development
of that notion), they had failed to show an ability to avoid losing to lesser
teams. Wisconsin lost on Senior Day at home to a Purdue team that finished
below .500 for the year and struggled twice against lowly Penn State.
When at their best, the Badgers could hang with the best of
the best. But when the shots stopped falling, Wisconsin simply refused to try
finding another way to get the job done.
Ultimately that is what led to the early exit on Friday.
Wisconsin was a far better team than Mississippi. They were uniquely qualified
to slow down Ole Miss’ high tempo offense and had the disciplined approach to
stop the high-octane offense of Rebel star Marshall Henderson.
Although Henderson finished with a game-high 19 points, he
was by no means the impact player he had been for much of SEC schedule. He
started the game 1-for-11 and finished just 6-for-21 from the field. Henderson
did not beat Wisconsin on his own as he had many teams throughout the regular
season.
Wisconsin beat itself. The Badgers, as they had all year,
once again bought into the popular notion that they were confined to living by
the three and dying by the three. Despite having the best interior player on
the court in senior Jared Berggren, Wisconsin never took advantage. After
quickly working the ball inside during an early second half run that gave UW a
36-30 lead, the Badgers put an immediate halt to any attempt at establishing an
interior presence.
When Mississippi finally began to make shots and erased the
Wisconsin lead, the Badgers responded as they had all season: they continued to
shoot.
This approach ultimately made the “live and die by the
three” prophesy take on a self-fulfilling nature. Just as they had during runs
made by Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa, Marquette,
Virginia, Creighton, and Florida, the Badgers tried unsuccessfully to shoot
themselves out of an offensive rut.
After taking 10 free throws in the first half, Wisconsin
shot just three over the game’s final 20 minutes. Between a Ryan Evans miss at
17:56 (following a made basket) and two makes by Jackson at 1:54, the Badgers
did not shoot a single free throw. In that span, UW made just 6 of its 23
shots. A comfortable five to six point lead had been transformed into a 50-44
deficit with the clock a formidable enemy.
For several years now it has been said that Wisconsin is
built to protect leads. More than one color analyst has commented “a 10-point
lead for Wisconsin is like a 30-point lead for anyone else”. This season,
Wisconsin lost leads of 9 or more points in 7 of its last 12 games prior to the
NCAA Tournament (not once prior) and had lost leads of 6 or more points in a
total of 12 games.
If having a 10-point lead was for Wisconsin like having a
30-point advantage, then the Badgers up 30 were not safe this season.
This is surprising, especially given the defensive prowess
put on display by this year’s squad. While Badger teams tend to be better at
holding leads simply because of the slow pace they prefer to play at and the
ability they have to limit turnovers, this year’s team had the added benefit of
being able to defend even some of the nation’s best offensive lineups, holding
the likes of Indiana and Michigan to a total of just 59 points per game
(compared to their season averages of 80.0 and 75.2 PPG respectively). Given
that Bo Ryan was an astonishing XXX-XX at Wisconsin when holding opponents
under 60 points prior to this season, it seemed like this ability to defend
might be enough to overcome inexperience at the guard positions.
But after winning its first 12 such games this year,
Wisconsin went just 6-6 over the final 12 games in which it held its opponent
under the magic 60.
As much as people like to call out Bo Ryan for his supposed
strategy of reducing games to low scoring brawls, Wisconsin has been able to
score under Bo Ryan. Though his personnel have generally resulted in an
intentional effort to limit possessions, Ryan’s teams have found ways to put
the ball in the basket consistently. This year, the Badgers weren’t able to do
that.
After failing to score 50 points on just 5 occasions since the
start of the 2007-2008 season, the Badgers finished short of the half-century
mark a total of SEVEN times in this seasons’ final 21 games. In fact, prior to
that run it had taken 193 games for UW to find itself below 50 points on 7
different occasions, a stretch that goes back to the final weeks of the
2006-2007 season.
Prior to this season, Badger teams had found themselves in
shooting droughts. Any UW basketball fan will remember the awful stretch
suffered late last year by Mike Bruesewitz and it shouldn’t be hard to think
back at times throughout the Bo Ryan era during which the shots simply weren’t
falling for a sustained period of time.
But unlike past teams, this year’s Badger squad didn’t seem
willing to make an effort at finding another way to put points on the board. Just
two years after coming within a shot of setting the NCAA record for team free
throw percentage, Wisconsin was dead last in the Big Ten, shooting just 63.4%
for the year at the charity stripe.
While UW shot just 33% as a team from three-point range, the
Badgers took more shots from beyond the arc than any Big Ten team with the
exception of Illinois. Despite having three experienced frontcourt players and
arguably the most athletic 7-footer in the Big Ten, Wisconsin took 784 three-point
shots, 184 more than Ohio State and a full 273 more than Michigan State. Of the
1959 shots Wisconsin took during the 2012-2013 season, 40% of them were from
three-point range. Big Ten champion Indiana took just 32% of its shots from
beyond the arc.
Unless UW somehow finds a group of shooters, this trend of
over-reliance on the three ball has to reverse itself in order for Wisconsin to
once again contend for a conference title and hopefully make a deeper run in
the NCAA Tournament. Given the ability of Badger teams to play defense better
than virtually anybody in college basketball, it makes no sense that UW cannot
win the six straight games necessary to secure a national title. Even when the
shots aren’t falling, Wisconsin has the mentality and the personnel necessary
to squeak out a victory when the going gets tough. If any one program should be
built to “survive and advance”, it is Wisconsin.
Unfortunately, the inability of this year’s team to
recognize its flaws starts at the top. Game after game I heard Bo Ryan shrug
off a poor shooting performance with the age old “the shots will fall
eventually” argument, contending that the shot selection was fine and that
nothing could be done to get the ball to go through the hoop.
For the first few such games, I thought this was a good
attitude. Although never as consistently as the coaches and players would
admit, the missed shots were for the most part good looks. However, as the jump
shots continued to fall by the wayside, the Badgers did not choose to work the
ball inside but instead chose to continue attempts at fitting what had become a
square peg into an increasingly round hole.
Ultimately that inability to accept a major flaw and deal
with it head on is what set the stage for the disappointment of Friday’s loss.
Defensively, UW did everything it needed to do. The Badgers held Mississippi
under 60 points for the first time all season and did not allow Henderson to
get going early. Wisconsin kept the Rebel bigs under control for the most part
and controlled tempo throughout, keeping the game slow and prodding as the
Badgers are thought to like.
But when jump shots began to clank off the iron in the 2nd
half, Wisconsin did not make much of an attempt at finding another way to
“survive and advance”. Ultimately, that is why the Badgers were eliminated from
the NCAA Tournament earlier than expected.
Now that the season is over and done with, the focus turns
to next season. In addition to the return of Gasser, UW brings to campus the
state defensive player of the year in guard Bronson Koenig and adds two solid
big men from Ohio, Vitto Brown and Nigel Hayes. This class, along with
remaining pieces Dekker, Brust, Kaminsky, Gasser, Evan Anderson and yes, even
redshirt Duje Dukan, give Wisconsin fans plenty to look forward to.
Once again, the Badgers will be challenged from the start.
Although the Cancun Challenge, UW’s Thanksgiving tournament, is far from
loaded, Wisconsin will entertain Florida and Marquette at the Kohl Center and
will likely face a road game in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge (perhaps against one
of the conference newcomers). With the Big Ten forecast to be just as strong as
it was in the 2012-2013 campaign, Bo Ryan and company will once again face a
tough task as they enter conference play.
With most of next year’s nucleus having no more than a full
year of experience, Gasser’s return will be crucial. If there is one thing that
was obviously missing from this year’s team it was consistency at the point
guard position. Though Jackson was able to produce some clutch shots against
Iowa, Minnesota, and Penn State, he also went through prolonged spells during
which he struggled with his shot and failed to take care of the ball. Redshirt
freshman George Marshall, despite enormous expectations, failed to provide much
in the way of support off the bench. So even with the addition of Koenig,
Gasser will be relied upon to provide the consistency Wisconsin lacked during
the 2012-2013 season.
But whatever happens at the point guard position, Wisconsin
will be more fun to watch in the coming years. With star power in Dekker,
Koenig, and potentially in Nigel Hayes, the Badgers have the pieces to be a
serious contender not only in the Big Ten but on the national scene as well. In
contrast to the prodding offensive approach of the past few years, the
Wisconsin teams of the next four years should be able to run. They won’t be
Michigan or Indiana, but they wont be held under 50 points 7 times in a span of
21 games, that I can promise you.
This year, despite the disappointment of an early exit from
the NCAA Tournament, outlived realistic expectations. Lacking a true point
guard and failing to get consistent production from its seniors, Wisconsin
still managed to put itself squarely in the Big Ten title race and to run all
the way to the conference tournament final. Criticize all you want, Bo Ryan got
everything he could out of his team this season.
Going forward, there is plenty of promise and perhaps even
greater expectation. For the first time since the 2010-2011 season, Bo Ryan
will have two bona fide stars on his roster. With the calming influence of
Gasser and the outside shooting of Brust, Wisconsin has all the pieces.
Now its time to finally put those pieces together.
