Thursday Preview

Today the madness truly begins. Tuesday saw the start of the Big East Tournament in New York and Wednesday added to the mix the Pac-10 and Big-12, but Thursday is when the real action gets going. Along with the start of the Big Ten, SEC and ACC Tournaments, the other power conferences now add in teams that earned byes, giving us a chance to start seeing meaningful games, many of which will ultimately be played with an NCAA Tournament bid on the line.

Before we get to the Big Ten Tournament action (I will address that in a later post), here's a quick preview of some of the other games to watch today around the country:

Big 12

Oklahoma State vs. #2 Kansas (11:30am CT):
The classic quarterfinal 1/8 matchup, this game features a bubble team on the outside looking in and a Kansas team that in all likelihood needs just 1 more victory to cement themselves among the #1 seeds for next weekend. Though the talent edge obviously resides with the Jayhawks, OSU will no doubt play with a reckless abandon we have become used to seeing out of teams that need that final upset victory to push their way into the field of 68.

Colorado vs. #23 Kansas State (2:00 CT):
Just a few weeks ago, it looked like it would be the Wildcats who would have more at stake in this matchup. But in the span of 6 games since CU knocked them off for a 2nd time this season, KSU has rattled off a perfect stretch that included 3 wins over ranked foes, 2 of those coming against top-10 teams. With Kansas State now firmly inside the bubble, its Colorado that has fate at stake here. Perhaps the more jekyll and hyde team in the nation, the Buffs are the prototypical bubble team. Coming into Thursday at 20-12 and 8-8 in the tough Big 12, record alone would seem to put them in the field. But while they have posted signature wins against Texas, Missouri, and Kansas State (twice), each of those wins is opposed by an equally disappointing loss. With defeats coming at the hands of Oklahoma, San Francisco, Iowa State, and Nebraska weighing down their tourney hopes, it seems that without a final victory today, the Buffs may be just one Texas A&M prayer short of their first NCAA appearance since 2003.

Oklahoma vs. #10 Texas (6:00pm CT):

While Oklahoma's defeat of a disappointing (and Perry Jones-less) Baylor squad was certainly surprising for Jeff Capel's sub-500 squad doesnt seem to have a prayer against a Longhorn team that has one of the most talented rosters in the nation. Don't expect this one to be close (and apparent ESPN agrees, relegating this one to ESPN3). But hey, anything can happen in the month of March.

Missouri vs. #21 Texas A&M (8:30pm CT):

Both of these teams have spent all season teetering along the line between elite teams and bubble worthiness. Both have spent time in the top 15 and yet neither has been able to stay there very long. Missouri's 88-84 victory over Texas Tech yesterday should get them into the NCAA field, but their seeding is very much up in the air. Despite a 23-9 record, the Tigers' best win came against regional rival Illinois back in December and an 8-8 conference record is anything but stellar when considering it includes losses to Colorado, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State. Texas A&M, while a rankings darling for much of the season, doesnt stand out much either. Missouri was their best win and 2 losses to Baylor combined with another to Nebraska wont help the resume a bit. But the last game between these two wound up in overtime and I wouldnt be surprised if today turned out the same.



ACC

The ACC is just starting its first-round (play-in) games, so in the interest of time, I will just give you a rundown:

Miami vs. Virginia (11:00am CT)
Wake Forest vs. Boston College (1:30pm CT)
NC State vs. Maryland (6:00pm CT)
Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech (8:30pm CT)

Virginia Tech, Boston College, and perhaps Maryland have a chance to get into the field. Maryland needs more than just a win today and while today might be enough to get Va Tech in, BC needs another victory tomorrow (against Clemson) in what will be the classic "bubble game" in all likelihood.


Big East

#19 UCONN vs. #3 Pitt (11:30am CT):

Maybe the best daytime matchup, this classic Big East battle pits a UConn team that has already played twice against a fresh Pitt squad looking to cement a #1 seed for the NCAA Tournament. After having little expectation coming into the season, the Kemba Walker-led Huskies shocked the country in non-conference play by winning their first 10 games, climbing as high as 4th in the polls before a loss to Pitt began a disappointing conference slate that resulted in them having to play in Tuesday's first round. Still, the Huskies have done enough to put themselves squarely into the tourney field and despite all of the controversy surrounding the program, they remain dangerous not only through this weekend, but into the tourney itself. Pitt, on the other hand, has dominated the Big East this season, separating themselves from the pack quite a bit over the past few weeks. While #4 Notre Dame knocked the Panthers off at home to break their conference perfection, they have never been outside of the top spot in the conference and now seem to be in a fight with the Irish not just for the conference tournament title, but perhaps more importantly for a top seed in the NCAA tournament come selection Sunday.

#18 St. Johns vs. #11 Syracuse (1:00pm CT):
After receiving a fairly generous series of no-calls at the end of their 2nd round game against Rutgers, the Johnnies now look to continue their "magical" run at Madison Square Garden (I will never call it 'the garden' or 'MSG') against a Syracuse team who thus far has been the only team to knock off Steve Lavin's crew on their home floor (St. Bonaventure and Cincinnati beat St. Johns on campus in Queens). After going through a 4-game losing streak earlier in the season, the Orange have steadily climbed up the rankings and earned a double-bye in the conference tournament. For a team that won 18 straight out of the box, its hard to argue that they arent capable of rattling off a few more.

Cincinnati vs. #4 Notre Dame (6:00pm CT):
For all of the talk about the 'surprising' runs of UCONN and St. Johns, Notre Dame is without a doubt the biggest surprise in college basketball. Unranked to start the season, the Irish picked up a holiday tournament title by taking advantage of a Badger collapse in Orlando, only to follow up that title with a conference season that included "upsets" of then-#9 Georgetown, #3 Pitt, and two wins against UCONN. With senior Ben Hansborough following in his brother's footsteps into the Wooden Award conversation, the Irish are poised to continue surprising the college basketball nation into the postseason. Cincinnati on the other hand has continued to fly under the radar. While their non-conference schedule was fairly weak, they ran through it unblemished and proceeded to go 11-7 in Big East play, knocking off ranked teams in Louisville and Georgetown (twice). Though probably not 100% in the field yet, the Bearcats would like to pull off one more upset to remove all doubt.

Marquette vs. #14 Louisville (8:30pm CT):
Though the Cardinals still managed to earn a double bye, their season-ending loss to West Virginia went beyond the threshold of disappointment. Still looking for a top seed in the NCAA field, Louisville has to prove to the committee that they have been able to put that loss behind them. Still, one has to believe that a 12-6 Big East record and wins over the likes of Pitt, Syracuse, and UCONN will speak for themselves more so than an early season defeat at the hands of Drexel. Marquette is still on the bubble. Yes, last night's comeback win over West Virginia should be enough to get Buzz Williams' squad into the field of 68, but with the possibility of 11 teams earning spots in the tourney out of the Big East, there is a good chance the committee will look at those final few with an added bit of scrutiny. One more quality win tonight and the Golden Eagles can put those doubts to bed.


Pac-10

California vs. USC (2:00pm CT):
Without anyone noticing, Kevin O'Neill has resurrected the USC program from the calamities of OJ Mayo and Tim Floyd, getting the Trojans on the backdoor bubble in their first year of postseason eligible since the self-imposed and NCAA sanctions. An 18-13 record (10-8 in the Pac-10) is far from impressive, but with wins coming over the likes of Texas, Tennessee, UCLA, and Arizona, not to mention a very-near win at Kansas, the resume is worth a look. Still, the Trojans are going to need multiple victories this weekend, likely needing a berth in the tournament finals (after a win against Arizona) in order to get into the field. Even then, USC might be the perfect candidate for Dayton. California is quite honestly a disaster right now. Not only is the state (and thus, the school) virtually in bankruptcy, but now the basketball program is facing probation after well-respected head coach Mike Montgomery admitted making over 300 impermissible phone calls to recruits. While the Bears have quality wins against Temple and UCLA, near-misses against Arizona (3OT), UCLA, and USC give them no chance at an at-large with a 17-13 record. Still, they have the talent to give anyone a run for their money and could be in position to reek havoc this weekend at Staples Center.

Oregon State vs. #15 Arizona (4:30pm CT):
Arizona struggled the last time they played in Los Angeles and while Thursday looks like a gimmie on paper, I would be worried if I were a Wildcat fan. Though U of A should be in the NCAA field, a loss to OSU, a team that already beat Arizona earlier this season, would do significant damage to their seeding. Without much in the way of a signature non-conference win to rely on, the Wildcats have a lot at stake in terms of seeding this weekend. OSU, coming off a nice victory against Stanford Wednesday night, is young and underperforming expectation. After Craig Robinson (yes, Michele Obama's brother) led the Beavers to a CBI Championship two years ago, the program has struggled to move forward, failing to hit the 500 mark in either of the past two seasons. With Robinson's job now on the line, expect OSU to come out firing.

Oregon vs. UCLA (8:00pm CT):
There is a good argument out there that UCLA is the most under-appreciated team in the nation. They finished 2nd in the Pac-10 with a 13-5 record, recorded non-conference wins over BYU and St. Johns, and nearly topped Kansas in Lawrence. For a program accustomed to battling for a #1 seed, the return from last season's sub-500 disaster has been slower than expected but by no means disappointing. UCLA has the talent to win the conference tournament and can no doubt make a run at the 2nd weekend come NCAA Tournament time. With most of the focus on the Oregon program surrounding the coaching and court changes, the growth process at this athletic power has been largely ignored. Still, new head coach Dana Altman has the Ducks improving, managing to finish with a 14-16 regular season record that included wins over Washington and at USC. Though the Ducks will miss their 3rd straight NCAA tournament, the future is bright in Eugene

Washington vs. Washington State (10:30pm CT):
Both of these teams are a puzzle. Washington State, led by Klay Thompson's 21.4 PPG, should have been a tournament team this season. While they have wins over Baylor and Gonzaga, and two over Washington, losses to Oregon, Stanford, and ASU might be too much to overcome in a fairly weak Pac-10. Washington seemed in solidly as recently as late February. While the heartbreaking loss in Tucson eliminated any hope of a conference title, the Huskies proceeded to put themselves on the bubble by adding a 2nd loss to their in-state rivals. Usually 20-10, 11-7 in the Pac-10 is enough for a fairly high seed in the NCAA Tournament, let alone a spot. But with the conference as weak as it is this year, that is not guaranteed. But as with many teams playing today, Washington can put themselves in with one more victory.